14. December 2018

An interesting detail about the legendary Templeton Growth Fund

The Templeton Growth Fund has an outstanding long-term track record. But investors of the legendary investor needed a lot of patience. With the fund he did not outperform the market during the first 14 years. Web Source: Smead, C.: “Academia vs. The Real World – Part 1”, Smead Capital Management, 11 December 2018,, Link […]

18. October 2018

A result of the trade war

The CKGSB Business Conditions Index is an alternative to the China official manufacturing PMI. In September, it fell to its lowest level since its launch seven years ago. Professor Li Wei, who oversees the survey, said that “for most, business has never been worse.” Web Source: “Alternative China PMI Gauge Says Business `Has Never Been […]

5. October 2018

What we could have learned from Albert Einstein

“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” Albert Einstein As of 2017, global debt climbed to USD 237 trillion. This is about USD 100 trillion more than at the beginning of the financial crisis. Web Source: Tanzi, A.: „Global Debt at Record Level”, Bloomberg, 10 April 2018, accessed […]

Credit, Economy
14. September 2018

The risk with FAANG shares

„History tells us that of the top 10 stocks in the world, eight will disappear over the next decade.“ Rob Arnott   The FAANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google) have been outperforming the broad market for years. Today they are among the largest companies in the world. I would like to try to illustrate the risk […]

14. September 2018

Extreme gold positioning

For the first time since 2001, speculators became net short in gold. Previous phases of extreme positioning led to an average price gain for gold of 10.6% over the next three months and 16.2% over the next 12 months. Source: Coward, B.: „Offsides Positioning in Gold, Bonds and the US Dollar Will Make for an […]

14. September 2018

Why the stock market could face a difficult time

According to the Leuthold Group, the median price-to-sales ratio (P/S) has almost doubled since the dot-com era. The cap-weighted P/S is at the same level as at the peak of the tech bubble. Source: Chang, S.: „Behold the ‘scariest chart’ for the stock market“, MarketWatch, 09 August 2018, accessed 16 August 2018,, Link to [...]